The global oil market is grappling with rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict in Israel, that are threatening to disrupt supply and drive up prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of a significant deficit, with global crude stocks at their lowest since 2017.
prices have surged above $90 a barrel following an attack by Hamas on Israel. This escalation could impact major producers like Iran and potentially cause a drop in oil supply. The situation is further complicated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) tightening supply, led by Saudi Arabia.
The IEA anticipates record demand of 101.9 million barrels daily by 2023, largely due to China’s robust demand growth. However, it also forecasts a slight decrease to 102.7 million barrels daily by 2024 as the economic rebound from Covid-19 lockdowns begins to fade.
Despite these challenges, the IEA expects output to grow this year by 1.5 million barrels daily, further rising next year by 1.7 million barrels daily. The Middle East, responsible for a third of sea-borne oil trade, is a key player in these projections.
Rising oil prices are not only boosting Russian and Iranian oil revenues but are also triggering inflation fears as U.S. gasoline prices reach $4 a gallon. This could lead to monetary tightening and increased stagflation risks.
The escalating conflict in Israel and increasing Middle East tensions underscore the fragile nature of the global oil market and its susceptibility to geopolitical events. These developments could have far-reaching implications for both oil producers and consumers worldwide.
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