Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.
A note on methodology
Data is presented in a “just the facts, ma’am” format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.
Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked.
A few items (e.g., Financial Conditions indexes, regional Fed indexes, stock prices, the yield curve) have their own metrics based on long-term studies of their behavior.
Where data is seasonally adjusted, generally it is scored positively if it is within the top 1/3 of that range, negative in the bottom 1/3, and neutral in between. Where it is not seasonally adjusted, and there are seasonal issues, waiting for the YoY change to change sign will lag the turning point. Thus I make use of a convention: data is scored neutral if it is less than 1/2 as positive/negative as at its 12-month extreme.
With long leading indicators, which by definition turn at least 12 months before a turning point in the economy as a whole, there is an additional rule: data is automatically negative if, during an expansion, it has not made a new peak in the past year, with the sole exception that it is scored neutral if it is moving in the right direction and is close to making a new high.
For all series where a graph is available, I have provided a link to where the relevant graph can be found.
Recap of monthly reports
April data started with another negative ISM manufacturing report, and a slightly positive ISM non-manufacturing report. Jobs continued to grow at an objectively strong rate, but with negative revisions to the past 2 months. Wages also increased sharply on a nominal basis. The unemployment and underemployment rates declined, but against the backdrop of an actual decline in the labor force against which it is measured.
March data included an increase in factory orders, and an increase in total construction spending on a nominal basis, but a decline in residential construction spending.
In the rear view mirror, labor productivity declined in Q1, as unit labor costs rose strongly.
Long leading indicators
Interest rates and credit spreads
Rates
- BAA corporate bond index 5.61%, up +0.01 w/w (1-yr range: 5.00-6.59)
- 10-year Treasury bonds 3.43%, unchanged w/w (1.66-4.25)
- Credit spread 2.18%, up +0.01 w/w (1.76-2.42)
(Graph at Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield | FRED | St. Louis Fed )
Yield curve
- 10 year minus 2 year: -0.48%, up +0.12% w/w (-0.86 – 1.59)
- 10 year minus 3 month: -1.82%, down -0.15% w/w (-1.17 – 2.04)
- 2 year minus Fed funds: -1.17%, down -0.34% w/w
(Graph at 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | FRED | St. Louis Fed )
30-Year conventional mortgage rate (from Mortgage News Daily) (graph at link)
- 6.50%, down -0.09% w/w (5.05-7.38)
At the end of February there was a significant change in bond ratings, which all moved from negative to neutral, because yields did not make a new high in the previous 4 months. Typically in the past this is the first step towards the longer lived decline in bond yields which signals the end of a recession in the future.
While the spread between corporate bonds and Treasuries remains positive, all three of my yield curve indicators are negative; and indeed have intensified at the short end.
Housing
Mortgage applications (from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
- Purchase apps down -2% w/w to 166 (137-349) (SA)
- Purchase apps 4 wk avg. down -2 to 168 (SA) (268 high 3/26/22, low 154 Mar 17)
- Purchase apps YoY -32% (NSA)
- Purchase apps YoY 4 wk avg. -32% (NSA)
- Refi apps up +1% w/w (SA)
- Refi apps YoY down -51% (SA)
*(SA)= seasonally adjusted, (NSA) = not seasonally adjusted
(Graph at yardeni)
Real Estate Loans (from the FRB)
- Up +0.4% w/w
- Up +10.5% YoY (-0.9 – 12.1)
(Graph at Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks | FRED | St. Louis Fed )
Mortgage rates, like bond yields, appear to have made their peak for this cycle in October. Unlike bonds, I will not move these to “neutral” unless they get closer to their average in the last 3 years. Purchase mortgage applications may also recently have bottomed.
Real estate loans turned ever more positive in the past year. This was helped by inflation in house prices; thus the turn in the indicator will be when that cools – which may be starting to happen.
Money supply
The Federal Reserve has discontinued this weekly series. Data is now only released monthly. March data was released one week ago:
- M1 m/m down -2.0%, YoY Real M1 down -13.3% (60+ year low)
- M2 m/m down -1.2%, YoY Real M2 down -9.0% (60+ year low)
No recession has happened without a YoY real M1 negative, or YoY real M2 below +2.5%. Real M2 fell below that threshold last March. Real M1 also turned negative as of last May.
Corporate profits (Q4 actual S&P 500 earnings and Q1 estimated + actual earnings from I/B/E/S via FactSet at p. 29)
- Q1 85% actual + 15% estimated up +0.76 to 52.78, down -1.2% q/q
FactSet estimates earnings, which are replaced by actual earnings as they are reported, and are updated weekly. The “neutral” band is +/-3%. I also average the previous two quarters together, until at least 100 companies have actually reported. The cumulative decline since the recent Q2 peak through Q1 2023 is -6.8%. I am maintaining a negative rating so long as that is the case, and there is a quarterly decline as well.
Credit conditions (from the Chicago Fed) (graph at link)
- Financial Conditions Index up +.03 (looser) to -0.27 (-0.03 – -0.62)
- Adjusted Index (removing background economic conditions) up +.07 (looser) to -0.21 (+0.16 – -0.59)
- Leverage subindex up +0.12 (tighter) to +0.89 (+1.27 – -0.35)
In these indexes, lower = better for the economy. The Chicago Fed’s Adjusted Index’s real break-even point is roughly -0.25. In the leverage index, a negative number is good, a positive poor. The historical breakeven point has been -0.5 for the unadjusted Index. The leverage index is now negative, while the adjusted index is now below its breakeven point, so has turned positive. The unadjusted index went sufficiently above its breakeven point three weeks ago to change to negative.
Short leading indicators
Economic Indicators from the late Jeff Miller’s “Weighing the Week Ahead”
- Miller Score (formerly “C-Score”): up +29 w/w to 272, +6 m/m (125 6/24/22 – 319 on 11/4/22)
- St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index: up +0.4529 to -0.2641 (1.5746 3/23/23 – -.8325 9/16/22) St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
- BCIp from Georg Vrba: down -4.0 to -14.0 as of 4/20/23 iM’s Business Cycle Index (100 is max value, below 25 is recession signal averaging 20 weeks ahead)
The Miller Score is designed to look 52 weeks ahead for whether or not a recession is possible. Any score over 500 means no recession. This number fell below that threshold at the beginning of August 2021, so not only is it negative, but we are now well into the “recession eligible” time period.
The St. Louis Financial Stress index is one where a negative score is a positive for the economy, and during its limited existence, has risen above zero before a recession by less than one year. It did so in December, and then again briefly in March. Now it has decreased back below zero again.
The BCIp, which remained very positive until very recently, has deteriorated sharply this year, and is below its recession-signaling threshold.
Trade weighted US$
- Down -0.06 to 119.43 w/w, unchanged YoY (last week) (broad) (118.06 – 128.31) (Graph at Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index
- Down -0.39 to 101.25 w/w, down -2.3% YoY (major currencies) (graph at link) (100.47-114.78)
Ever since 2021, both measures of the US$ were well above +5% higher YoY, and so negative. Recently, both declined into the neutral range, and one week ago, for the first time the US$ against major currencies turned weaker YoY, and so positive.
Commodity prices
Bloomberg Commodity Index
- Down -1.35 to 102.96 (102.59-136.61)
- Down -21.0% YoY (Best: +52.3% June 4, 2022; worst -21.0% this week)
(Graph at BCOM | Bloomberg Commodity Index Overview | MarketWatch )
Bloomberg Industrial metals ETF (from Bloomberg) (graph at link)
- 153.56, down -3.42 w/w (135.97-327.84)
- Down -21.4% YoY (Best +69.0% May 7, 2022)
During the Boom of 2021, commodity prices soared, and total commodities were very positive. Both total commodities (which include oil) and industrial metals have also declined into the bottom 1/3rd of their 52 week range, so have also turned negative.
Stock prices S&P 500 (from CNBC) (graph at link)
At the beginning of February stocks made a new 3 month high, but there has been no 3 month new low, so the rating of this indicator improved from neutral to positive. Although it came very close last week, it did not make a new high. Since there has neither been a new 3 month high nor a new 3 month low in the past 3 months, this indicator has reverted to neutral.
Regional Fed New Orders Indexes
(*indicates report this week) (no reports this week)
- Empire State up +46.8 to +25.1
- Philly up +4.5 to -22.7
- Richmond down -9 to -20
- Kansas City down -8 to -21
- Dallas up +4.7 to -9.6
- Month-over-month rolling average: down -2 to -10
The regional average is more volatile than the ISM manufacturing index, but usually correctly forecasts its month-over-month direction. Since last spring, these gradually declined to neutral and then negative. They are very negative now – although the rocketing upward of the Empire State Index two weeks ago was interesting.
Employment metrics
Initial jobless claims
- 242,000, up +13,000 w/w
- 4-week average 239,250, up +3,500 w/w
(Graph at St. Louis FRED)
Recently, major revisions caused the all-time lows from March and April 2021, as well as the sub-200,000 readings earlier this year to disappear. Further, since the beginning of March the 4 week average has been higher than it was one year ago, and for the past five weeks has been higher YoY by over 10%. This changed the rating of this metric all the way to negative, and puts it in “yellow flag” caution for recession territory (if it goes over 12.5% for over a month, that will warrant a “red flag.”
Temporary staffing index (from the American Staffing Association) (graph at link)
- Down -1 to 97 w/w
- Down -7.1% YoY
This was extremely positive at the end of 2021. During 2022, the comparisons at first slowly and then more sharply deteriorated, and four weeks ago for this first time turned negative. It had the most negative February downturn since the inception of the index 16 years ago, and continued to a new post-pandemic low in the weeks since then as well.
Tax Withholding (from the Department of the Treasury) Issues: Current and Archive
- $246.5 B for the last 20 reporting days this year vs. $243.0 B one year ago, +$3.5 B or +1.4%
- $246.9 B for the month of April vs. $254.2 B one year ago, – $7.3 B or -2.9%
YoY comparisons peaked in Q1 2022. Since summer, it has oscillated between neutral and positive, and was negative on a monthly basis several times. Since the first of the year, these have generally turned positive. But that was not the case for the month of April. As a result, this week this indicator is mixed, or neutral.
Oil prices and usage (from the E.I.A.)
- Oil down -$5.25 to $71.45 w/w, down -21.1% YoY ($66.74 – $123.70)
- Gas prices down -$0.06 to $3.60 w/w, down -$0.58 YoY
- Usage 4-week average up +1.1% YoY
(Graphs at This Week In Petroleum Gasoline Section – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA))
Gas prices are in the middle 1/3rd of their 3 year range, and so have returned to neutral. Oil is also in the middle of its 3 year range, and so it remains neutral.
Mileage driven has improved to positive.
Note: With gas and oil prices so volatile in the past 12 months, I believe the best measure is against their 3 year average. Measuring by 1 year, both have turned positive.
Bank lending rates
- 0.289 TED spread down -0.010 w/w (0.02 -.685)
- 5.10 LIBOR up +0.07 w/w (0.10130- 5.10) (graph at link) ( new high)
TED was above 0.50 before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Since early 2019 the TED spread had remained positive, except the worst of the coronavirus downturn, until last spring. It has been very choppy recently, varying between neutral and negative. It turned positive again three weeks ago.
LIBOR has been increasing consistently well into its negative range.
Coincident indicators
St. Louis FRED Weekly Economic Index
- Down -0.21 to +0.92 w/w (+0.72 3/17/23 – +4.27 4/30/22)
After a very positive 2021, this measure declined to less than half its best YoY level, thus changing to neutral. I will continue to treat it as neutral unless the number turns negative.
Restaurant reservations YoY (from Open Table) State of the Restaurant Industry | OpenTable
- April 27 seven day average -6% YoY, down -2% w/w (Worst this year -9% 4/21/23)
I have been measuring its 7 day average to avoid daily whipsaws.
Open Table has resumed this metric. Its data indicate that during March and early April it stabilized at roughly unchanged, but in the past 4 weeks declined significantly.
Consumer spending
- Johnson Redbook up +1.3% YoY (high 15.8% in July 2022; low 1.1% April 21, 2023) United States Redbook Index – 2023 Data – 2005-2022 Historical – 2024 Forecast
The Redbook index remained positive almost without exception since the beginning of 2021 until October. This week was the lowest YoY comparison in 2.5 years. The new link I have added above goes to a 5 year graph to best show the comparison.
I recently downgraded this metric to neutral. The 4 week average is now below 2%
Transport
Railroads (from the AAR)
- Carloads up +1.4% YoY
- Intermodal units down -10.3% YoY
- Total loads down -4.9% YoY
(Graph at Railfax Report – North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report )
Shipping transport
- Harpex up +9 to 1226 (1056- 4586) harperpetersen
- Baltic Dry Index down -35 to 1546 (530-3369) (graph at link)
Rail carloads turned positive early in 2021, before gradually fading to negative from August through the end of the year and the beginning of this year. The total loads index has been consistently negative for the past four months. In the past several months, comparisons have hovered near the zero line, varying between neutral and negative. This week they were neutral again.
Harpex increased to near record highs again early in 2022, but has since backed off all the way to new lows. BDI traced a similar trajectory, before rebounding sharply in the past few weeks, and remains negative.
I am wary of reading too much into price indexes like this, since they are heavily influenced by supply (as in, a huge overbuilding of ships in the last decade) as well as demand.
Steel production (American Iron and Steel Institute)
- Up +0.9% w/w
- Down -4.0% YoY (worst -10.0% Dec 2, 2022)
Since the end of March 2021, against terrible comparisons, this metric had been positive, typically running at a double digits higher YoY percentage growth. This past spring, after almost continuous deterioration, it turned negative, and has remained so. The YoY comparisons have improved considerably in the past few weeks. For several months it improved above -5.0% YoY, turning neutral, but then reverted to negative again. In the past two week it has improved again.
Summary and conclusion
Below are this week’s spreadsheets of the long leading, short leading, and coincident readings. Check marks indicate the present reading. If there has been a change this week, the prior reading is marked with an X:
| Long Leading Indicators | Positive | Neutral | Negative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate bonds | ✓ | |||
| 10 year Treasury | ✓ | |||
| 10 yr-2 yr Treasury | ✓ | |||
| 10 yr-3mo Treasury | ✓ | |||
| ✓ | ||||
| Mortgage rates | ✓ | |||
| Purchase Mtg. Apps. | ✓ | |||
| Refi Mtg Apps. | ✓ | |||
| Real Estate Loans | ✓ | |||
| Real M1 | ✓ | |||
| Real M2 | ✓ | |||
| Corporate Profits | ✓ | |||
| Adj. Fin. Conditions Index | x | ✓ | ||
| Leverage Index | ✓ | |||
| Totals: | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
| Short Leading Indicators | Positive | Neutral | Negative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Spread | ✓ | |||
| Miller Score | ✓ | |||
| St. L. Fin. Stress Index | ✓ | |||
| US$ Broad | ✓ | |||
| US$ Major currencies | ✓ | |||
| Total commodities | ✓ | |||
| Industrial commodities | ✓ | |||
| Stock prices | x | ✓ | ||
| Regional Fed New Orders | ✓ | |||
| Initial jobless claims | X | ✓ | ||
| Temporary staffing | ✓ | |||
| Gas prices | ✓ | |||
| Oil prices | ✓ | |||
| Gas Usage | ✓ | |||
| Totals: | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Coincident Indicators | Positive | Neutral | Negative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Econ. Index | ✓ | |||
| Open Table | ✓ | |||
| Redbook | ✓ | |||
| Rail | ✓ | |||
| Harpex | ✓ | |||
| BDI | ✓ | |||
| Steel | ✓ | |||
| Tax Withholding | ✓ | |||
| TED | ✓ | |||
| LIBOR | ✓ | |||
| Financial Cond. Index | ✓ | |||
| Totals: | 1 | 5 | 5 | |
The “Recession Warning” which began at the end of November for this year remains, as all three of my primary systems remain consistent with a near-term recession.
As I indicated last week, the short leading indicators are setting up for the recovery afterward, including bargain levels for oil and other commodities, while the US$ just turned positive. But the stock market fell to a neutral rating this week.
Among the coincident indicators, consumer spending is on the verge of turning negative in the next few weeks. Additionally restaurant reservations, one of the first cutbacks consumers typically make, have continued to deteriorate. Tax withholding has also faded somewhat in the past few weeks.
I suspect that if it were not for the steep decline in gas prices in the 2nd half of 2022, we would already be in recession. Declining producer prices and decelerating consumer prices are keeping the economy afloat.
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